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U.S. Real Estate Markets With Consistent Price Appreciation
Buying home, condo or any other real estate in a market that is protected from a bursting bubble is every investor’s dream. Knowing where to look for these bubble-proof markets and how to identify them is crucial.
There are some important factors that investors should consider when searching for stable investments such as single-family homes, condos or any other type of real estate. Some of these factors include a fast growing population (which positively impacts the demand for housing), a solid and diverse economy (which impacts employment rates and subsequent demand for housing), rising incomes (which impacts buyers’ ability to purchase real estate), a developing infrastructure (which contributes to the appeal of a city or community), and restrictions on future real estate development (which limits future supply of real estate). Investing in real estate within communities that meet these criteria may prove to be more profitable than communities that are missing one or more of these factors.
A recent report by Business 2.0 Magazine identified U.S. cities that have consistently demonstrated price appreciation in the real estate market. The October 2006 issue of the Magazine identified the top 5 real estate markets that demonstrated an upward price trend over a long period time. The top-ranking cities were:
1. San Francisco, California
2. Los Angeles, California
3. Seattle, Washington
4. Boston, Massachusetts
5. New York City, New York
San Francisco topped the list with an average annual home price appreciation of 4.2% from 1949 to 2006. In contrast, the national average was 2.3%. Strong restrictions on real estate development and a limited geography helped push San Francisco to the top slot.
Los Angeles ranked second in the report. The average annual home price appreciation in Los Angeles was 3.7% from 1949 to 2006. Reductions in available land and increasing restrictions on further development helped pushed Los Angeles to the number 2 slot.
Home prices in Seattle, which was third on the list, demonstrated an average appreciation rate of 3.2% from 1949 to 2006. While Seattle made the top 5 list, recent easing of building restrictions may cause Seattle to fall out of the top 5 over the next few years.
Boston was fourth in the rankings. The city has seen annual home prices appreciate by 3% over the period from 1949 to 2006. A strong increase in per capita income contributed to Boston’s high ranking.
New York City follows close behind with an average annual home price appreciation of 3% from 1949 to 2006. A limited geography, large population, and finite number of properties contributed to New York’s high ranking.
While there is no guarantee that any of the real estate markets listed previously are truly “bubble proof,” the factors described above may help investors find the profitable markets and avoid “bubble” markets. Since the real estate market is constantly changing, be sure to seek out the services of a skillful real estate agent to help you navigate your next real estate purchase.
Alphabet Soup? Nope, Those are Real Estate Agent Designations!
What do the letters behind a real estate agent’s name stand for? Real estate agents, like doctors, lawyers, and other professionals can ear designations, certifications, and other credentials. These are usually shown by putting a series of initials after the agent’s name. The most common designations and certifications are: Broker, REALTOR, e-Pro, CHMS, GRI, ABR, and CRS.
What does an agent have to do to obtain the designation or certification?
e-Pro requires an agent take a class on basic computer skills. It has no real estate content, but ensures your agent can use email and the web. It should really be a bare minimum bar for the technology aptitude of your agent.
REALTOR is the one of the easier credentials to obtain (but one of the hardest to live up to). A REALTOR is a real estate agent that belongs to the National Association of REALTORS and agrees to follow the Realtor Code of Ethics. You can read about the code here http://www.realtor.org/mempolweb.nsf/pages/Code?OpenDocument
Broker is a bit harder to obtain than REALTOR. In Texas, for example, a broker license is required to be able to operate your own real estate company. An agent must have their license for 2 years and complete over 600 hours of real estate education prior to applying for a broker’s license. The broker’s license is granted upon completion of an exam administered by the state. Brokers are basically real estate agents with advanced educations.
GRI stands for Graduate Realtor Institute. Less than 50% of agents have this designation. The GRI requires 12 days of continuing education with passing grades on three exams. There are no production or time requirements so an agent can literally earn this designation by sitting in class for 12 days and passing the tests. This designation is in no way a measure of real estate sales experience.
ABR stands for Accredited Buyer’s Representative. Less than 30% of agents have this designation. This designation combines 2 days of classroom work and an exam with the requirement that the agent show proof of at least five buyer sales. This designation shows that the agent has had both formal classroom time and in the field experience.
CRS stands for Certified Residential Specialist. Less than 4% of all agents have this designation. This is the most difficult designation to obtain and is a measure of a high degree of formal education and real world transactional experience. To obtain a CRS, the agent must attend three 2-day classes, pass three exams, and provide proof of 25 closed transactions within the last 24 months. While the transaction experience isn’t a huge amount, it does weed out the inexperienced agents and the classes weed out those agents who aren’t dedicated to continuing education.
Other designations are out there, but for the most part they are issued by inconsequential groups and have no real bearing on the agent’s abilities and are used more for marketing purposes than anything else.
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U.S. Real Estate Forecast From A Supply
On any given day, people can easily find articles and news stories describing an impending bust of the so-called real estate bubble. Despite this gloomy prediction, many experts believe that the recent slowdown in housing will be a gradual and modest readjustment rather than sharp bust or decline. These experts believe that factors that lead to a sharp decline in the real estate market are just not present in the current economic outlook. In fact, a recent study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University noted that “despite the current cool-down, the long-term outlook for housing is bright.”
The rise and fall of the real estate market is subject to the forces of supply and demand, and these factors point to stable and positive growth in the real estate segment.
SUPPLY FACTORS
Limited supply of real estate makes it scarce and usually pushes home prices up. In contrast, an oversupply of real estate tends to put downward pressure on home prices. Despite the current slow down in the real estate market, factors that impact limited supply favor continued growth in the real estate market. Some of these factors include:
1. Builders have readjusted growth plans in regions that have an oversupply of new housing. Over time, any excess inventory is likely to be depleted and equilibrium achieved between supply and demand.
2. The availability of land in certain regions, as well land use regulations and associated compliance costs will continue to restrict the supply of new homes.
DEMAND FACTORS:
Housing located in regions with high demand tend to be more expensive than homes in regions with low demand. Factors that impact the demand for housing suggests a favorable long-term housing outlook. Some of these factors include:
1. No current evidence of significant and across-the-board job losses; forecasts of relatively low unemployment rates.
2. Long-term increased demand for second homes, vacation homes and senior housing by baby boomers.
3. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by the children of baby boomers.
4. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by immigrants.
5. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by second-generation Americans.
6. Forecasts that the outflows and inflows of the U.S. population in and out different regions will not significantly impact the overall U.S. real estate housing market.
7. Relative stability in interest rates.
8. Continued stability in long-term home appreciation rates.
9. Overall, rising rate of wealth across all age groups.
SUMMARY
In summary, strong household growth, overall rising incomes and wealth, and a stable economy all bode well for continued long-term growth in the real estate market. While the overall housing outlook is favorable, affordability will continue to be a challenge, as wages, especially in the lower income levels, have not kept up with housing costs.